Meyer and Kunrether synthesize years of experience to develop a model for why individuals and organizations consistently fail in the face of crisis, and offer some brief policy recommendations. Their work is anchored in cognitive psychology, particularly Kahneman's Thinking Fast, and Slow. System 1 is fast and intuitive, but prone to serious cognitive biases. System 2 is deliberative, but requires good information lacking in a crisis. Six cognitive biases in particular, prevent preparedness for disasters.

To quote:
1) Myopia: A tendency to focus on overly short future time horizons when appraising immediate costs and the potential benefits of protective investments--especially the hyperbolic discounting of upfront costs now vs harms years in the future.
2) Amnesia: a tendency to forget too quickly the lessons of past disasters.
3) Optimism: a tendency to underestimate the likelihood that losses will occur from future hazards.
4) Inertia: a tendency to maintain the status quo or adopt a default option when there is uncertainty about the benefits of investing in alternative protective measures.
5) Simplification: a tendency to selective attend to only a subset of relevant factors when making choices involving risk.
6) Herding: a tendency to base choices on the observed actions of others.

In this short volume (125 pages, including notes), they run through the biases and case studies, with a light breezy tone reminiscent of top level journalism rather than the bludgeoning of an academic paper. They suggest a process they deem a Behavioral Risk Audit to meet each of the biases head on. For example, low probability risks can be compared to driving in sunny and snowy conditions, or risk of a disaster can be stated over 25 years rather than annual. The Ostrich Paradox is a little light, but a great introduction to a new angle on risk assessment and management.